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Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You, The Economy Tanks in the Fourth Quarter

Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You, The Economy Tanks in the Fourth Quarter. Obamanomics is a failure.

Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You, The Economy Tanks in the Fourth Quarter

 

The latest data further shows Obamanomics is a failure.

 

Negative Growth: The Economy Tanks in the Fourth Quarter

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/30/Obama-Economy-Shrinks-In-Fourth-Quarter

 

Obama's $264 Billion Tax Increase for 2013 May Spark New Recessionhttp://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-taxes-2013-recession/2013/01/07/id/470418?s=al&promo_code=11A3E-1

 

GDP growth in the 12 quarters after a recession: 

Average since WWII                        15.2% 

Ronald Reagan                                 18.5% 

Obama                                                6.7% 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444813104578016873186217796.html?mod=opinion_newsreel

 

“Even if you start from when the recession ended in June, 2009, the decline since then has been greater than it was during the recession.  Three years into the Obama recovery, median family income had declined nearly 5% by June, 2012 as compared to June, 2009.  That is nearly twice the decline of 2.6% that occurred during the recession from December, 2007 until June, 2009.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/09/02/obamas-accelerating-downward-spiral-for-america/ 

 

And of course, there are Obama’s and the Dems’ unsustainable debt and deficits. 

The Mess We’re In”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303561504577497442109193610.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h 

“Did you know that annual spending by the federal government now exceeds the 2007 level by about $1 trillion? With a slow economy, revenues are little changed. The result is an unprecedented string of federal budget deficits, $1.4 trillion in 2009, $1.3 trillion in 2010, $1.3 trillion in 2011, and another $1.2 trillion on the way this year. The four-year increase in borrowing amounts to $55,000 per U.S. household.” 

Under Obama, America’s per capita debt is greater than Greece, Ireland, Italy and France.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/this-chart-of-americas-per-capita-debt-should-worry-you/ 

 

The deficit, the unemployment rate and the employment rate were better every year under George Bush than in any year under Obama. 

Therefore, I submit Obamanomics is a failure.  That is obvious to anyone willing to lift their head out of the Kool-Aid punch bowl of the MSM. 

“To see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle.” George Orwell

 

 

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Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 01:30 AM
<<Do you want the policies that produced 18.5% growth or the policies that produced 6.7% growth?>> You're just throwing out meaningless numbers. Fact is that the GDP organically grows at 2-4% per year. PC's and the internet were transformative technologies that gave a once in a lifetime stimulus to our economy. Unfortunately they transformed the global economy - ie, flattened the world. Other countries are out-competing us in many areas. The need for 'dumb' middle management is fleeting. The Greenspan era of managed interest rate/money supply by the FED fooled a generation into thinking that downturns won't happen. Unfortunately this policy also distorted the economy into a casino with multiple bubbles. The real estate bubble, wherein trillions of dollars were plowed into nil-productive assets, negative savings rates, and huge amounts of debt made every euphoric while it lasted. Then the private sector collapsed. What you perceived as economic growth was fueled by debt, private, now public. Had the feds not shoveled trillions into the economy, unemployment would have mirrored the Great Depression.
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 01:43 AM
<<You are probably pro choice but not pro that choice.>> The Social Security system was installed to provide a basic safety net for all citizens. Granny shouldn't have to eat cat food just because she was too lazy or too stupid or unlucky. It's part of the social contract. The initial concept was that it would kick in at age 65 which was the actuarial lifespan of the average worker. Benefits have changed. Lifespans have changed. It's no longer actuarially sound. It should be. Older adults who don't care if their children receive the same benefits are beneath contempt.
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 01:48 AM
I wish the Brazilian story was as simple as you portray it. They are rolling along adding debt, extracting minerals and oil, plus adding new farmland in the Amazon Basin. The question is: are they adding to their net national equity? The jury is out on that. They've stabilized their currency and appear to be doing a good job. It's a pleasant surprise.
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:50 AM
"Fact is that the GDP organically grows at 2-4% per year." That's the point. Obama's grow government and attack the private sector policies have produced by far the slowest economic recovery since the Great Depression. Bad government policy of forcing banks to give loans to people who could not afford them and using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy the loans and sell them as mortgage backed securities was the primary cause of the 2008 crash. Bad government policies caused the Great Depression. I think economists and historians will debate for years and decades to come the effect of TARP (which Obama supported) and what would have happened without TARP. I think things might have been worse in the short run and better in the long run without TARP. The closest example is the 1929 crash. By December 1929, unemployment was in the 9% range, but by June of 1930, unemployment was back in the 6% range and dropping. Then the government decided to "help." By the end of 1930, unemployment was >10% and would not drop below 10% until WWII. The recession ended in June 2009. Obama's "porkulous" bill could not have caused that. As shown in the data above, his polices produced slow growth, declining income, massive debt and deficits and high unemployment. “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” John Adams
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:51 AM
BTW, the CBO reports Obama’s first “porkulous” bill increased the number of employed people between .2 million and 1.5 million at a cost between $4.1 million and $540,000 per job.http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/05/cbo-obama-stimulus-may-have-cost-as-much-as-4-1-million-a-job
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:54 AM
The first rule of practicing medicine is the first rule of governing: “DO NO HARM.” If Obama had done nothing, the economy would be much better today.
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 05:00 PM
<<If Obama had done nothing, the economy would be much better today.>> In my estimation our 'Great Recession' began during 2007, and continues to the present. When I think of the current economic situation, I think of the Panic of 1873 rather than the Great Depression of the 1930's. The implication that the Federal Government, or any government, is 'creating' jobs seems illusory. At one point government expenditures were accounting for something like 40% of the economy. So what was the government to do? Lay everyone off? Let unemployment rise above 50%? I don't think so! "forcing banks to give loans to people who could not afford them"? I don't think so! Fannie and Freddie were publicly traded corporations that were poorly regulated, responding to the conventional wisdom of an ' ownership society'. The age old farm and manufacturer practice of hedging morphed into a casino sporting a derivative-driven musical chairs party. Nearly everybody had on party hats. Left, right, everybody. We're in the sixth year of a decade-long hangover. Having spent trillions of dollars on non-productive assets and 2-3 generations enculturating people to believe that they deserve to live beyond their means, we've got a problem. A problem that only hard work will solve: It's time to lay down arms and get to work. It's time to learn how to compete, or learn to accept fate. It's time to look into the mirror rather than playing the blame game.
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 05:17 PM
The most dangerous assertion in economics, and history, is: "things are different this time". However, I'm inclined to think that we've passed an inflection point. Things ARE different. In the past, low interest rates and government subsidies would pump up the economy. Today, one trillion dollars a year and zero interest rates doesn't seem to work. What's up? Why is it that some segments of the population and some areas of the country are thriving, while others are not? I'm inclined to think that this 'coming apart' is less about Obama, and more about you and me.
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:14 PM
Dear Ms. Keller: You are a rare exception for someone on the Left to publically acknowledge the problems with SS and Medicare and the need to reform those programs. Some Reps have proposed reforms, at considerable political risk, only to be thwarted and demagogued by the Dems, e.g. the ad with a Paul Ryan look alike pushing grandma off the cliff. The Dems did not say we disagree with your plans to reform and save SS and Medicare, here are our proposals, the Dems denied or ignored the problems. "Why $16 Trillion Only Hints at the True U.S. Debt" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578127374039087636.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h “The actual liabilities of the federal government—including Social Security, Medicare, and federal employees' future retirement benefits—already exceed $86.8 trillion, or 550% of GDP.” If Obama were to choose to be President of the United States of America and put what is best for America first, not “fundamentally transforming the United States of America,” and not “spreading the wealth around,” he would find the Reps are willing partners.
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:41 PM
“In the past, low interest rates and government subsidies would pump up the economy. Today, one trillion dollars a year and zero interest rates doesn't seem to work.” Our past economic success was based primarily on the private sector, economic freedom and the free enterprise system, not government. I agree, the data is overwhelming that “Today, one trillion dollars a year and zero interest rates doesn't seem to work.” Where I disagree, is that government policies can make a big difference, especially on the downside. Bad government policies made the Great Depression. Bad government policies made the 2008 recession. Bad government polices produced the slowest economic recovery since the Great Depression. Ronald Reagan’s policies of getting government out of the way produced 20 million jobs and the longest peacetime expansion in history. RR inherited a very bad economy, 21% interest rates, double digit inflation and 7.5% unemployment. The Federal Reserve slammed the brakes on the money supply and sent the country into recession that did not end until November 1982. The unemployment rate went higher than in the 2008 recession. By 1984, the economy was booming, RR cruised to re-election and was not blaming his predecessor or whining that no one could have turned the economy around in 4 years. Yet, America was not fundamentally different in 1984 after 4 years of RR’s policies compared to 1980 after 4 years of Carter’s and the Dems’ policies.
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:41 PM
Reagan also set off a 25 year boom, with two mild recessions in 1991 and 2000, that increased wealth from $25 trillion in 1980 to $57 Trillion in 2007. For more info and data on Reaganomics vs. Obamanomics, please see: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904875404576530412322260784.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2011/05/05/reaganomics-vs-obamanomics-facts-and-figures/ http://media.photobucket.com/image/recent/mmatters/ReaganVsObamaJobs6QtrsAsOf020411.png Even the MSM has to concede the point, although they try to excuse Obama’s poor economic performance. http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/06/news/economy/obama_reagan_recovery/index.htm
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:42 PM
The greater the economic incentive is for a behavior, the more of it you get; the less incentive, the less of the behavior you get. The greater the incentive for work, savings and investment, the more of it you get. The less incentive for work, savings and investment, the less of it you get. RR understood this, got the government out of the way and the economy boomed. Similarly, the greater the incentive to sit on your butt and draw government benefits, the more of that behavior you get. Under Obama government dependency, not counting SS and Medicare, is at an all time high.
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:49 PM
“The most dangerous assertion in economics, and history, is: "things are different this time". However, I'm inclined to think that we've passed an inflection point. Things ARE different.” “I'm inclined to think that this 'coming apart' is less about Obama, and more about you and me.” I think what you are feeling and sensing is more than just the lousy economy, America and all of western civilization is in decline. We know it; we feel it. Gallup: Only 39% have positive view of America [the lowest since 1979] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/21/Gallup-Americans-Are-Down-On-America-In-Record-Numbers#comments Only 16% think today’s children will be better off than their parents http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/november_2012/only_16_think_today_s_children_will_be_better_off_than_their_parents The labor force participation rate is the lowest it has been in ~30 years. Family formation is down. The birthrate is below replacement in most western countries and barely at replacement in the US. We have departed from the principles, values, traditions and institutions that built and sustained our civilization, political, economic, moral, cultural and religious. [I believe these principles, values, traditions and institutions have been deliberately undermined by the Left seeking to transform America and western civilization into Leftism, but that is for another blog.]
Gregory Brittain February 02, 2013 at 07:49 PM
“Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good.” Thomas Sowell We could turn the economy around within a few years or sooner with conservative, free market, free enterprise based policies. Turning around the decline of American and western civilization is a much more daunting challenge because the political, economic, moral, cultural and religious principles, values, traditions and institutions on which our or any civilization are based are much less within government or anyone’s control. The first step is to recognize the problem and want to change course.
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 08:49 PM
Sorta funny: I used to be considered centerist, or even right-leaning. Now I'm billed as a lefty. I have a good friend whose main room in his weekend retreat is adorned with a huge poster of Oswald Spengler. I'm not that pessimistic. You quote Sowell, I prefer Winston Churchill: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 09:24 PM
I beg to differ with your analysis of economic history. In my estimation, the US economy was knocked way off its pins by the guns and butter approach of the Vietnam War plus the Great Society. Sure it was initiated by Democrats, but the butter part was accelerated by Medicare, etc. expansion under Republicans. By the time Carter was elected things were out of control. His dour Volcker physick made Reaganism possible. When Reagan was elected, the economy had turned. Reagan was lucky enough to inherit a country with restored borrowing capacity to permit a 'don't worry, be happy' economy. We've run deficits ever since. Our recent problem is that other countries have learned modern education skills and have built infrastructure to put those skills to work. Much of America has been willing to pretend that it's still 1980. Unfortunately in a global economy, there's no need to pay someone with a high school education $50/hour to operate a screwdriver. Mass manufacturing capability has fled across borders. What remains here is being replaced by robots. That's what's different. Shoving new money into the economy just inflates bubbles for existing assets. Wages aren't rising and with an economy that's footed to consumerism, the consumer is tapped out. The huge private sector debt accumulated in real estate acts a giant sheet anchor. There's another 4,5,6 years before that gets worked out of the system.
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 09:27 PM
Those of us who worry about such things think that another bout of Nixonian inflation will result from replacing private debt with public debt. But what's another choice?
Helen Keller February 02, 2013 at 10:47 PM
Slightly off topic: San Bernardino has invested hundreds of millions in an airport that no one uses. They're investing tens of millions on a commuter train that no one will use. They're investing millions on an express bus that no one will use. Why not invest in a free ferry to cruise up and down the Santa Ana River?: http://news.yahoo.com/alaska-borough-wants-away-expensive-ferry-222717872.html
Gregory Brittain February 03, 2013 at 12:25 AM
That's how you spend other people's money. The Federal government offers to rain borrowed and printed money on SB, and SB says "sure." If CA and/or SB had to pay for these projects, the answer would be a resounding "no." Even if the projects have some value, we are $16 trillion in debt and sinking fast. We can’t afford them. Just as in our personal lives, we have to say “I can’t afford that.” Just as in our personal lives, we have to say “No” to our children when they ask for things. As Senator Rubio said, either we deal with the debt or the debt will deal with us. If you believe in fiscal responsibility, I invite you to the meeting of the Redlands Tea Party Patriots. Feb. 7, 7:00 at Mill Creek Restaurant in Mentone. If not this meeting, we meet the first Thursday of each month. You are always welcome. The February 7 meeting will focus on our constitutional right to bear arms under the Second Amendment. The Tea Party principles are: 1. Fiscal responsibility. 2. Constitutionally limited government. 3. Free markets and free enterprise system.
Gregory Brittain February 03, 2013 at 12:31 AM
Reasonable reductions and then limit the growth of Federal spending while adopting pro growth policies. If the private sector grows faster than government for the next 10 years, we will make significant progress with the problem. SS and Medicare need to be reformed and made sustainable.
Gregory Brittain February 03, 2013 at 12:45 AM
And it's not just a zero sum game of cutting spending vs. increasing taxes. Government can be made more effective, efficient and less wasteful. There has been no serious effort to do so. Too many people benefit from the system as is. In the 1980s, the Grace Commission produced a report showing how the government could save hundreds of billions of dollars without reducing what the citizens receive from the government. The report was promptly put the shelf and forgotten. Hannity had a great show on Jan. 25 entitled "Boomtown" about how well Washington DC and the ruling class are doing. 15% of the $3.7 Trillion budget is spent in and around DC. Unlike previous American boomtowns, Washington DC does not produce anything. It's like Imperial Rome, living high on the hog off wealth extracted from the provinces. The governing class makes money from their power and connections to power. But it does not have to be this way. It is not how America was supposed to be.
Poe February 03, 2013 at 09:21 PM
Why not have some fun and waste more money with a free ferry to view the $1.7 billion Santa Ana River project? http://www.sbcounty.gov/dpw/floodcontrol/sevenOaks.asp
Poe February 04, 2013 at 02:45 PM
How bad is the economy when Coachella Valley Music Festival tickets sell out in 15 minutes at $399 (includes shuttle bus pass)? http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/music/posts/la-et-ms-coachella-2013-sells-out-weekend-one-minutes-20130129,0,633424.story
Helen Keller February 04, 2013 at 08:56 PM
That's how locals spend other peoples' money. I believe in fiduciary responsibility and try to have a rigid standard. I attended a Federal Bankruptcy hearing for the City of San Bernardino. Everyone there was interested in taking a chunk of taxpayer money. Lawyers on both sides pounding nails by the hour. Politicians shamelessly blaming the economy and taxpayers. Bureaucrats blaming politicians, but demanding to get paid. Union representatives demanding retirement monies and entitlements that far exceeded Social Security and Medicare benefits. CalPERS demanding that taxpayers give them a 7.75% return on investments despite the fact that they paid more than $1.5 Billion to their advisors and themselves, but only broke even during the previous 12 month. Only the Federal Judge seemed to be looking out for the people. - (Maybe we need some hanging judges?) Thank you for the offer to attend your Tea Party meeting. I believe in your principles, but interpret them differently. I've found that Tea Party folk mouth the talk, but don't walk the walk. I have no use for light weights like Glen Beck or blowhard drug addicts like Rush Limbaugh (although I like his family).
Helen Keller February 04, 2013 at 09:21 PM
Fiscal Responsibility requires a certain financial literacy and self-reflection that most TP'ers simply don't possess. Constitutionally limited government assumes civic literacy, common sense, and humility that seems to elude many (often including me). - [I honestly don't understand the current Second Amendment arguments: Is it OK for me to keep a loaded AR-15 in my house? How about a bazooka? What about a nuclear warhead? || Does Scalia's originalism require that my rightful firearm must be a musket?] [Do I not have 'unenumerated rights of privacy ?] Free markets and free enterprise work well, but Black Swans happen. Human interactions create 'fat tails' Unfettered capitalism can be abusive. It works best when there is serious feedback. Monopoly systems like government, health care, and education require oversight. To argue otherwise is a fools errand, or worse. (Today, we seem to be suffering from 'worse'. I appreciate that the Tea Party has brought attention to 'worse'. Unfortunately their leading spokespersons aren't really credible.)
Helen Keller February 04, 2013 at 09:34 PM
I worry less about indebtedness at the federal level because the federal government can print money to cover it. At the state and particularly local levels that's not the case. Locally, counties, cities, and districts are in trouble. They don't seem to understand the need for legitimate feedback metrics. I'm hard put to name a single local politician whom I would trust with my wallet. But hey, they got elected! To me, that's the major difficulty I see with the Federal Stimulus programs. Theoretically the locals should know best how to deploy that money. However, I don't detect much adult leadership in the IE. I'm resigned to the ethos from Shaw's "Doctor's Dilemma" - 'the doctor doesn't cure, time does; the doctor's job is to amuse the patient until that time arrives.' Ciao
Gregory Brittain February 05, 2013 at 04:38 AM
"Fiscal Responsibility requires a certain financial literacy and self-reflection that most TP'ers simply don't possess." Tea Party members are not running trillion dollar deficits with no end is sight. Tea Party members did not create CA's $500 billion unfunded pension liability. Tea Party members did not create the Federal government's $89 Trillion unfunded liabilities. Tea Party members did not squander $800 billion on the "porkulous" bill that according to the CBO cost between $540,000 to $4.1 million per job. Tea Party members did not approve the wasteful spending like the SBx line we discussed above. You might want to reconsider who has and who does not have the "certain financial literacy and self-reflection" that "fiscal responsibility requires."
Amanda Frye February 05, 2013 at 05:43 AM
Maybe Tea Party Members would like to help reduce the debt. Why not take up a collection at your next Tea Party Meeting. According to http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/resources/faq/faq_publicdebt.htm You can make a contribution to reduce the debt. There are two ways for you to make a contribution to reduce the debt: You can make a contribution online either by credit card, checking or savings account at Pay.gov You can write a check payable to the Bureau of the Public Debt, and in the memo section, notate that it's a Gift to reduce the Debt Held by the Public. Mail your check to: Attn Dept G Bureau of the Public Debt P. O. Box 2188 Parkersburg, WV 26106-2188
Amanda Frye February 05, 2013 at 05:55 AM
You can find the national debt on any given day at http://brillig.com/debt_clock/ shows that The Outstanding Public Debt as of 05 Feb 2013 at 05:35:45 AM GMT is: $16,450,213,405,196.71 The estimated population of the United States is 314,365,983 so each citizen's share of this debt is $52,328.22. Feel free to share with your Tea Party friends.
Helen Keller February 05, 2013 at 07:02 AM
To the extent that the US is borrowing the money internally to be spent internally, 'squander' is moderately off the mark because of the multiplier effect. A country that can pay off debts with magically created specie can get away with being quite 'wasteful'. Trillion dollar deficits seem large until measured against the size of current GDP. I appreciate the tocsin sounded by the Tea Party; however, I don't think its members have a robust answer to structural problems. Meanwhile the general economy will slowly improve with private delevering. I'm not very worried.

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